A Method for Identifying and Ranking the Risks of the New Product Development Process in the Iranian Automotive Industry Using the Method Combined ANP-DEMATEL
Subject Areas : Research and Development Managementseyed ghasem salimi zavieh 1 * , roksana fekri 2
1 - Allameh Tabataba’I University
2 -
Abstract :
The rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking in global markets and the ever-increasing changes in customer needs have put pressure on new product development teams.There are many risks in the process of developing new products in all industries intrinsically. Therefore, understanding, identifying and ranking the risks is of strategic importance for companies. The purpose of this study is identifying and ranking the risks in the process of developing a new product in Iran's automotive industry, based on the literature of research and specialized interviews conducted with experts, the main indicators have been identified. The main risk indicators in the new product development process are organizational, managerial, financial, manufacturing, marketing, and technical. Moreover, they are related to the phases of new product development. Therefore, these indicators will be ranked in this study. Regarding the relationship between the criteria and the sub-criteria, the DEMETL technique will be used to identify the relationship model, and based on the network of identified relationships, the network analysis process (ANP) technique has been used for ranking the criteria and Sub-criteria with Super Decision software. The result of these techniques suggests that organizational risk is the most important parameter in risk management of the new product development process and the technical risk is the least important. On the other hand, sub-criterion of incorrect planning of resources has the highest importance and sub-criterion of lack of sufficient communications is the least important in the automotive industry in Iran.
1- میرزا رمضانی، ابوالفضل، گلستان هاشمی، سیدمهدی، ناصریان، سید محمدمسعود. ارائه مدل مدیریت ریسکهای فناورانه در فرایند توسعه محصول جدید با رویکرد TRIZ فصلنامه توسعه تکنولوژی صنعتی، دوره 16، شماره 32، ص29-18، (1397).
2- امینی امیر، علینژاد علیرضا، رحمانی مهسا. ارزیابی ریسکهای توسعه محصول جدید در حوزه بانکداری متمرکز با استفاده از FMEA و تلفیق آن با روش COPRAS در محیط خاکستری. نشریه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهشهای پولی و بانکی، دوره 10، شماره 3، ص 121-87، (1395).
3- رمضانيان محمدرحيم، نصير ابوالقاسم، عبدي عبداله. تحليل ريسک توسعه محصول جديد (NPD) با استفاده از شبکههاي بيز (BNs)، تحقيقات بازاريابي نوين، دوره 2، شماره 1 پیاپی 4، ص 202-185، (1391).
4- میرزا رمضانی، ابوالفضل، گلستان هاشمی، سیدمهدی، ناصریان، سید محمدمسعود. شناسایی ریسکهای فناورانه فرایند توسعه محصول جدید و اولویتبندی با فرایند تحلیل شبکهای، فصلنامه رشد فناوری، سال چهاردهم، شماره 53، ص 26-18، (1396).
5- ابراهیمی مرتضی، خورشیدی زهرا. کاربرد تکنیک دیمتل و فرایند تحلیل شبکهای در اولویتبندی عوامل مؤثر بر انتخاب سهام در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران. فصلنامه مهندسی تصمیم، دوره ۱، شماره (۴): ص ۲۹-۵۲، (1395).
6- O'Cass, A., Heirati, N., Viet Ngo, .Achieving new product success via the synchronization of exploration and exploitation across multiple levels and functional areas, Industrial Marketing Management. Vol (43), Issue 5, PP. 862-872, 2014.
7- Goodwin, S. A. The Concept and Measurement of Perceived Risk: A Marketing Application in the Context of the New Product Development Process. ASBBS Annual Conference: Las Vegas, Vol 16, Number 1, 2009.
8- Cai, Y.L., Zhai, Y. K, A Framework of Set based Concept Selection for Risk Control of Product Development. Advances in Industrial Engineering and Management (open access), 3:PP. 59-62, 2014.
9- Mehrjerdi,Y. Z., Dehghanbaghi, M.A dynamic risk analysis on new product development process. International Journal of Industrial Engineering and production Research. Vol (24) nomber (1): PP. 17-35, 2014.
10- Schmitt, R., Zentis, T, Technical risk management for an ensured and efficient product development on the example of Medical Engineering. In: Abramovici, M., Stark, R. (Eds.), Smart Product Engineering. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, pp. 387–398, 2013.
11- Thamhain, H., Managing risks in complex projects. Project Management Journal Volume 44, Issue 2, PP. 20–35, 2013.
12- Hellstrom, T., Systemic innovation and risk: technology assessment and the challenge of responsible. Innovation Technology in Society, Technology in Society, Volume 25, Issue 3, PP. 369–384, 2003.
13- Ulrich, K. T., Eppinger, S. D.Product design and development – Third Edition. New York, McGraw-Hill. PP. 1-366, 2004.
14- Smith, P. G., Merritt, G. M. Proactive Risk Management: Controlling Uncertainty in Product Development. New York: Productivity Press. PP. 1-248, 2002.
15- Afonso, M. Nunes, A. Paisana, The influence of time-to-market and target costing in the new product development success, Int. J. Production Economics, vol 115: PP. 559–568, 2008.
16- Oehmen, J., Seering, W., Risk-driven design processes – balancing efficiency with resilience in product design. In: Birkhofer, H. (Ed.), The Future of Design Methodology. Springer, London. PP. 44-54, 2011.
17- GAO, Defense Acquisitions – Managing Risk to Achieve Better Outcomes (GAO10-374T). United States Government Accountability Office, Washington, D.C. pp. 1-21, 2010.
18- Fox, J., Gann, R., Shur, A., Glahn, L., Zaas, BProcess uncertainty: A new dimension for new product development. Engineering Management Journal, vol (10) Issue 3: pp.19–27, 1998.
19- Miller, R., Lessard, D., Understanding and managing risks in large engineering projects. International Journal of Project Management vol (19): pp. 1–44, 2001.
20- Riek, R.F., From experience: Capturing hard-won NPD lessons in checklists. Journal of Product Innovation Management, vol (18): pp. 301–313, 2001.
21- Wei, C.C., Chang, H.W. A new approach for selecting portfolio of new product development projects. Expert Systems with Applications, vol (38): pp. 429–434, 2011.
22- Chiang, T. A., Chen, Z. H. A fuzzy robust evaluation model for selecting and ranking NPD projects using Bayesian belief network and weight restricted DEA. Expert Systems with Applications, vol (37): pp. 7408–7418, 2010.
23- O'Connor, G. C. and Rice, M. P., A Comprehensive Model of Uncertainty Associated with Radical Innovation. Journal of Product Innovation Management, vol 30: pp. 2–18, 2013.
24- Tao, L., Wu, D., Liu, S., Lambert, J.H, Schedule Risk Analysis for New-Product Development: The GERT Method Extended by a Characteristic Function. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol 167: pp. 464-473, 2017.
25- Park, Y. H. A Study of Risk Management and Performance Measures on New Product Development. Asian Journal on Quality, 11(1), 39-48. 2010.
26- Alptekin, E, Yalçınyiğit, D, Alptekin, G, Evaluation of Risks in New Product Innovation. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology. Vol: 30. pp. 986-990, 2009.
27- Zhang, H, Yangbu, MaProduct Development Risk Management in Product Development Process. International Business and Management. Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 99-103, 2011.
28- Dori, B., Hamzei, E. Determining the Best Responding Strategy to Project Risk Using ANP Technique (Case Study: North Azadegan Oil Field Development Project)". Journal of Industrial Management, vol 2(4); pp.75-92, 2009.