Risk Assessment and Project Ranking by Fuzzy Inference System Method and AHP into Standard Project Management Knowledge Framework
Subject Areas : Knowledge Management
Afarin Akhavan
1
*
,
Zahra Zare Harofteh
2
1 - Science and Arts University
2 -
Keywords: Project Risk Evaluation Hierarchical AnalysisPMBOK Standard Fuzzy Inferenceoil industry projects,
Abstract :
Risk management is necessary to reduce failures caused by various risks such as uncertain economic cycles, uncertain customer demand and unpredictable natural and human disasters, etc. In this study, it was attempted to identify and prioritize project risks according to PMBOK standard and rank them based on fuzzy techniques and hierarchical analysis, to provide complete and comprehensive information on project risk management. Provide managers and experts with petroleum products. This research was carried out in three oil industry projects (project a, project b, and project c) in collaboration with 4 engineering consultants of oil industry projects. In this study, using previous studies and consulting company consultants and within the framework of the PMBOK standard, the risks of petroleum industry projects were divided into four groups: technical, intra-organizational, inter-organizational and project management. Risks were then ranked by fuzzy hierarchical analysis (AHP). To rank the risks, the criteria of cost, time, quality and scope of the project were determined using paired comparisons. Risks were ranked based on the impact they have on the project objectives (cost, quality, project time and cost). After weighing the risks, three research projects were paired on the basis of each identified risk, and the result of these comparisons was used as the input to the fuzzy inference. Finally, the success rate of each project was achieved and Project b ranked first, Project a ranked second and Project c ranked third, thus Project b was selected as the project with the lowest risk.
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